Diffusion CapitalDiffusion Capital

Monitor

AI, jobs, the economy and interest rates, as the data comes in.

The Monitor tracks how AI is changing the economy, along with the wider picture: jobs, growth, inflation, interest rates and public debt. It brings together official statistics, company figures, research data and market prices. This page shows what's new in the last 7 days, the most traded prediction markets and the key figures from each area. The other tabs go into more detail.

Latest reading: 2 November 2026

Latest

What's new

New figures and data updates in the last 7 days, newest first.

Dates: the official release day where the economic calendar has one, else the day the figure reached our data. Figures from the same release share its date. Beat or miss compares the figure with the economists' consensus; for unemployment and inflation, lower is better. In line: within 0.05 percentage points, or 25,000 jobs for payrolls. Where the calendar lists two consensus figures, we show the range: a figure inside it is in line, and one outside it is compared with the nearer end.

Coming up

2 – 15 November 2026

MonTueWedThuFriSatSun
Labour marketEconomyRates & FiscalEarningsPolitics

Monday 2 November · 1 event

Trending prediction markets

The most traded economics, AI and tech markets on Polymarket in the last 24 hours.

AI

Updated today
See all

Epoch Capabilities Index by model and release date

232 released models; the dashed line is the best so far · latest release 26 October 2026

Best released so farOpen weightsClosed weightsOther or unknown

Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI)

80100120140160180Apr 24Jul 24Oct 24Jan 25Apr 25Jul 25Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26
See chart

OpenRouter tokens per week

On OpenRouter, a marketplace that routes requests to many models.

193.6T

+3.0% vs last week

Week to Nov 1Source: OpenRouter

Open-weights share on Vercel

Vercel AI Gateway tokens served by open-weights models, 7-day average.

69.0%

−1.2 pp vs last week

1 November 2026Source: Vercel AI Gateway

H100 rental price

Ornn index from executed spot rentals, USD per GPU-hour.

$3.02

+22.8% vs 4 weeks ago

1 November 2026Source: Ornn

Open-weights lag

DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 1017 matches closed models from Mar 2026.

8.0 mo

+1.4 mo vs a year ago

2 November 2026Source: Epoch AI

What markets expect

Labour market

Updated 2 Oct 2026
See all

Jobs added each month

Change in US nonfarm payrolls on the month before · latest: September 2026

Jobs addedJobs lostConsensus for Oct 2026: +40k–65k
-200k-100k0100k200k300kOct 24Apr 25Oct 25Apr 26Oct 26
See chart

Payrolls

Change in nonfarm employment on the previous month

+29k

−61k vs consensus +90k

Sep 2026Source: BLS

Unemployment rate

Share of the labour force without a job

4.2%

+0.1 pp vs consensus 4.1%

Sep 2026Source: BLS

Share of US work AI touches

From Claude use. 24.1M work in jobs where AI handles 25%+

11.1%

May 2026Source: Anthropic

Software job postings, Germany

Indeed postings for software development, February 2020 = 100

48

−16.5% vs a year ago

Oct 2026Source: Indeed Hiring Lab

What markets expect

Economy

Updated today
See all

Energy drove all of the 0.7 pp rise in inflation over the past year

What adds to the 12-month change in consumer prices (CPI), January 2019 to September 2026

All items (published)Select a category

Percentage points; the line in percent

Use the left and right arrow keys to inspect months. Press Escape to close the readout.

−2%0%5%10%201920202021202220232024202520263.7%
See chart

Real GDP growth

Change on the previous quarter, annual rate

3.4%

+0.2 pp vs consensus 3.2%

Q3 2026Source: BEA

AI share of S&P 500 value

Eight AI companies, % of S&P 500 value

27.9%

−0.9 pp vs last week

Week to Oct 30Source: FMP

Brent crude futures

USD per barrel

$113.02

+55.1% vs 27 Feb 2026

30 October 2026Source: FMP

Korea chip export value

Export value, 3-month average, change on a year earlier

223%

+23 pp vs prior

Sep 2026Source: Bank of Korea

What markets expect

Rates & Fiscal

Updated today
See all

What pushed euro yields up in 2026

Since 27 February 2026 the euro-area 10-year rose 0.91 points, the AAA 2-year 1.03 · daily, latest 29 October 2026

10-year euro average10-year AAA2-year AAA

Percent

1%2%3%4%5%Energy shockMore ECB hikesFranceMar 25May 25Jul 25Sep 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26Sep 264.01%3.37%3.01%
See chart

10-year Treasury yield

Daily, constant maturity

4.98%

−0.07 pp vs previous day

29 October 2026Source: US Treasury

Germany, 10-year yield

Daily yield on federal securities, in euros

3.34%

−0.04 pp vs previous day

2 November 2026Source: Deutsche Bundesbank

Treasury-stock correlation

S&P 500 vs 10-year Treasuries, past year

0.32

−0.01 vs a month ago

29 October 2026Source: FMP, US Treasury

US debt held by the public

Federal debt held outside the government, daily

$32.71T

+$2.22T vs a year ago

29 October 2026Source: US Treasury

What markets expect

This monitor would not be possible without companies that publish their data openly. Thank you to everyone below for sharing it.

Figures are shown as published by the named source and are revised by their publishers. This page is for information only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. This dashboard is maintained and updated with the help of AI. Errors can occur; we apologise for any.