US GDP, annual rate
Value of all goods and services, before inflation
$33.01T
+5.9% vs a year ago
Q3 2026
Monitor
Growth, AI investment, inflation, energy and the world economy.
US growth and what drives it, the part AI investment plays, prices, energy and power, and how other large economies compare. From BEA, BLS, the Federal Reserve, EIA, the Census Bureau, the IMF and national statistics offices.
Latest reading: 30 October 2026
The US economy
How large the US economy is, what drives its growth, and how this quarter is going.
Real GDP growth
Change on the previous quarter, annual rate
3.4%
+0.2 pp vs consensus 3.2%
Q3 2026
GDPNow
The Atlanta Fed's running estimate of real GDP growth
3.2%
−0.1 pp vs prior
Q4 2026
Private domestic demandReal final sales to private buyers in the US, change on the previous quarter, annual rate. Leaves out trade, inventories and government.
Real private final sales, quarterly change, annual rate.
4.9%
+0.3 pp vs prior
Q3 2026
Consumers supplied more than half of US growth over ten years
Contributions to real GDP growth, percentage points at an annual rate, ten years to Q3 2026
GDP growth (right axis)Click a part to show only it
Percentage pointsGDP growth, %
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Each bar splits one quarter's growth into its parts, which add up to the line's value within rounding. The bars stop at ±10 points; the line on the right axis shows the full 2020 fall and rebound.
Business investment has grown most since 2019
Real value of each part of GDP, Q4 2019 = 100, to Q3 2026
GDPConsumersBusiness investmentHousingGovernmentExportsImportsQ4 2019 level
Index, Q4 2019 = 100
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Each line is a part of GDP after inflation, set to 100 in the last quarter before Covid. GDP itself is the thick line.
Trade deficit widened to $90B a month, from $64B a year ago
US exports and imports of goods and services, 3-month average, to Aug 2026
ExportsImportsTrade deficit
$ billion a month
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The shaded gap is the trade deficit. Importers bought ahead of the April 2025 tariffs, so imports peaked early that year and then fell back.
Chips lead factory growth; 5 of 19 industries shrink
Output against a year before, 3-month average, by industry, monthly since 2019, to Sep 2026
Less outputMore output(−10% … +10%)
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Semiconductors (outlined) are part of computers and electronics; rows run from the fastest growth down.
Source: Federal Reserve, G.17 ↗Consumer sentiment, at 48.0, is near its lowest since 1952
University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, monthly, to Oct 2026
Consumer sentimentAverage since 1978 (83.6)Recession
Index, 1966 = 100
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The index sums how households rate their finances and the economy, now and in the next years. Since 2022 mood stayed low while spending kept growing.
Source: University of Michigan, Surveys of Consumers ↗Saving rate at 3.8%, below the 6.1% before Covid
Personal saving as a share of disposable income, monthly, to Sep 2026
Saving rateAverage 2015–2019Recession
% of disposable income
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Saving less lets households spend more than their income grows. The axis stops at 12%; the 2020 peak is labelled above the plot.
What markets expect
AI in the economy
How AI companies perform in markets and earnings, where businesses adopt AI, and what studies show about work and productivity.
AI work: frontier vs USAnthropic reported 6 agent-runtime hours per staff hour in August 2026. We calculate the agent share as 6 ÷ (6 + 1) = 85.7%. Agent runtime includes inference and active tool use, pools subagents and excludes waits over 30 minutes; staff hours assume 40 hours per week. The US survey measures the share of human work hours assisted by generative AI among employed adults aged 18–64, including non-users. The percentage-point gap compares different measures and populations; it is not a productivity or automation gap.
Anthropic: agents' share of work hours
85.7%
Aug 2026
AI share of S&P 500 value
Eight AI companies, % of S&P 500 value
27.9%
−3.4 pp vs a year ago
Oct 2026
AI share of S&P 500 profit
Same eight, % of S&P 500 profit
23.0%
+2.3 pp vs a year ago
Q2 2026
Work time saved with AI
Self-reported, % of all US work hours
2.1%
+0.3 pp vs a year ago
Q3 2026
Hyperscalers and AI chips led the S&P 500's gain
Each group's part of the S&P 500's price gain since end-2022 in points, index members only, monthly to October 2026
S&P 500Hyperscalers and cloudAI chipsMemory and storageNetworking and opticsChip equipmentPower and gridRest of the market
Percent / percentage points
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Hyperscalers: MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL. Chips: NVDA, AVGO, AMD, MRVL. Memory: MU, WDC, STX, SNDK. Networking: ANET, CIEN, COHR, GLW, APH, LITE. Equipment: AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, TER. Power: CEG, VST, NRG, GEV, ETN, VRT, PWR.
Memory and storage makers grew profits fastest
12-month operating profit, change on a year earlier, Q2 2026
S&P 500
Percent change on a year earlier
Use Tab to move through the groups.
Operating profit summed over 12 months, the same companies in both years. Groups as in the chart above. Bars longer than the axis are cut and show their full value.
AI is 28% of S&P 500 value
Share of the index's market value in percent, monthly to October 2026
Eight AI companiesBroad AI groupChips and power
Percent of index value
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The broad group adds the chip makers and four power suppliers. We count full market value; S&P weights only freely traded shares, so these shares sit slightly above S&P's weights.
Where businesses are adopting AI
Monthly paid adoption, Jan 2023–Sep 2026; comparisons use Jul 2026–Sep 2026
The gap between leading and trailing sectors is 47.5 pp, a change of −1.0 pp from a year earlier.
0%25%50%75%100%
Share of Ramp businesses paying for AI
Use the arrow keys to move through months and sectors.
Circles show adoption or month-on-month change. Comparison columns use three-month means. Change colours saturate at ±2 pp; hover shows exact values. Ramp’s historical estimates and customer sample change. Overall uses Ramp’s published all-business series.
Source: BCG, Applied AI Index 2026 ↗Share of work done with AI
Share of work hours done with AI, latest reading of each measure
Wider economyAI labsNot with AI
Percent of work, one square = 1%
Use Tab to move through the four measures.
US work hours with AI
5.3%
Q3 2026
Anthropic staff work with Claude
59%
Aug 2025
OpenAI research hours by agents
75.6%
Aug 2026
Anthropic work hours by agents
85.7%
Aug 2026
One square is 1% of work. US hours count workers aged 18 to 64, non-users at zero. Agent shares are agent hours over agent plus staff hours.
Reported changes in work output
Output with AI against each study's baseline, published 2024–2026
MeasuredSelf-reportedno change
Multiple of the stated comparison baseline, log scale
Use Tab to move through the studies.
Task studies compare AI with no-AI work. Lab output ratios compare historical periods and do not isolate AI’s effect. Outcomes and baselines differ. Time saved s becomes 1 ÷ (1 − s).
What markets expect
Inflation
How fast prices rise, which parts drive them, and what households and markets expect.
Consumer prices (CPI)
All items, change on a year earlier
3.7%
+0.1 pp vs consensus 3.6%
Sep 2026
Core CPI
All items except food and energy, change on a year earlier
2.6%
+0.1 pp vs consensus 2.5%
Sep 2026
Core PCE inflation
Prices excluding food and energy, change on a year earlier
3.1%
0.0 pp vs consensus 3.1%
Sep 2026
Expected inflation, 5–10 years
Bond market's average yearly inflation for years 5 to 10 ahead
2.22%
+0.02 pp vs a year ago
30 October 2026
Energy drove all of the 0.7 pp rise in inflation over the past year
What adds to the 12-month change in consumer prices (CPI), January 2019 to September 2026
All items (published)Select a category
Percentage points; the line in percent
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Each bar splits the yearly rise in consumer prices into five parts: each part's BLS weight from the previous December times its own 12-month rate. The parts match the published rate (the line) within 0.5 point; the readout shows the gap. BLS collected no prices in October 2025.
Where prices are rising fastest
Prices of 14 CPI items against the same month a year earlier, January 2021 to September 2026
Below 2%Above 2%(−6% … 2% … +10%)
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One cell per month. Clay: prices rose faster than the Fed's 2% goal; steel: slower or falling. Full colour 8 points from 2%. The grey column is October 2025, when BLS collected no prices. Seasonally adjusted, US city average.
Headline and core PCE inflation
Year-on-year change, January 2019 to September 2026
Headline PCECore PCE2% reference
Percent a year
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PCE covers consumer spending. Core excludes food and energy. The Fed targets 2% headline PCE inflation over the longer run. Seasonally adjusted.
Businesses’ price increases and plans
Small businesses, three-month averages, March 2021 to September 2026
Reported increasesPlanned increases
Net % of firms · three-month average
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Net share raising minus cutting prices, seasonally adjusted. Reported changes cover the past three months; plans cover the next three. Three-month averages.
What markets expect
Energy and power
Oil, gas and electricity prices, and what data centres do to power demand and prices.
Hormuz tanker trafficThe headline uses IMF PortWatch tracked crossings. The separately dated LLI assessment includes identified AIS-off tankers over 10,000 dwt and excludes gas carriers. Coverage differs; the two counts should not be subtracted. Change compares the tracked series with its January–27 February 2026 average.
AIS-tracked tankers per day · seven-day average
0.9
LLI assessed · Oct 28 ↗ 2.3 /day
−97.6% vs pre-war average
25 October 2026
Brent crude futures
USD per barrel · same traded contract as the chart
$113.02
+55.1% vs 27 Feb 2026
30 October 2026
US electricity prices
Average retail price, all sectors, 12 months on the 12 before
6.3%
0.0 pp vs prior
Aug 2026
Data-centre share, 2035
Projected share of US electricity demand
20%
Jul 2026
Energy shipping disruptions and prices
Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab · data retrieved October 30, 2026
Left/right: date · up/down: chart · Escape: close readout.
IMF trackedLLI assessed
Sources and methodology
Dashed lines mark pre-war prices on 27 February 2026; shading shows diesel's premium over Brent and each gas price's premium over Henry Hub. Diesel and TTF are converted with dated EUR/USD rates. LLI counts include tankers sailing with AIS off; IMF cargo is an estimate.
Brent (FMP) 113.02 USD/bbl · Market time: Oct 30, 13:01 UTC
Diesel (NY Harbor) 195.75 USD/bbl · Market time: Oct 30, 13:01 UTC
TTF (Europe) 33.67 USD/MMBtu · Market time: Oct 30, 10:05 UTC · Delayed
Henry Hub (US) 2.87 USD/MMBtu · Market time: Oct 30, 13:01 UTC
JKM (Asia) 32.03 USD/MMBtu · Latest close: Oct 29, 2026
Available quotes refresh every minute. TTF is delayed; JKM uses the latest historical close.
LLI counts include identified AIS-off crossings by tankers over 10,000 dwt and exclude gas carriers. Coverage differs from IMF.
Assessed through: Hormuz Oct 28, 2026 · Bab al-Mandab Oct 25, 2026
Weekly estimates sum tanker cargo over complete Monday–Sunday weeks, covering oil, products, gas and chemicals. Voyages without AIS may be missed.
Futures prices; diesel is converted to USD/barrel and TTF to USD/MMBtu using dated EUR/USD rates. Quote times and delivery months can differ; contract rolls can cause jumps.
Reported total-flow estimates
Oil
| Reported period | Estimate | Unit | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1–Dec 31, 2025 | 21.6 | Million barrels/day | EIA, August 2026 chokepoint tables |
| Jan 1–Mar 31, 2026 | 14.9 | Million barrels/day | EIA, August 2026 chokepoint tables |
| Apr 1–Jun 30, 2026 | 4.9 | Million barrels/day | EIA, August 2026 chokepoint tables |
| Mar 1–Mar 31, 2026 | 2.3 | Million barrels/day | IEA, 14 April 2026 |
| Aug 1–Aug 31, 2026 | 7.6 | Million barrels/day | IEA, 18 September 2026 |
| Sep 1–Sep 30, 2026 | 10.9 | Million barrels/day | IEA, 14 October 2026 |
LNG
| Reported period | Estimate | Unit | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1–Dec 31, 2025 | 10.5 | Billion cubic feet/day | EIA, August 2026 chokepoint tables |
| Jan 1–Mar 31, 2026 | 7.4 | Billion cubic feet/day | EIA, August 2026 chokepoint tables |
| Apr 1–Jun 30, 2026 | 0.8 | Billion cubic feet/day | EIA, August 2026 chokepoint tables |
Trade exposed to Hormuz
All goods · modelled annual trade in 2022
ImportsExports
USD billions
Tab through the countries to read their trade; Escape closes the readout.
Percentages use each country’s total goods imports or exports across all transport modes.
Global trade chokepoints
Share of maritime goods trade by value · 2022
Other chokepointsHormuz
Share by value (%)
Tab through the chokepoints to read each share; Escape closes the readout.
Shipments can cross several chokepoints, so these modelled 2022 trade-value shares overlap.
Commercial electricity sales by state
Commercial electricity sales, 12 months to Aug 2026 against the 12 months before
−15%+15%PJM grid statesUS: +3.5%
VirginiaPJM
+5.1%
Commercial sales, change
- Household price, change
- +11.6%
- Household price
- 16.7 ¢/kWh
- US
- +3.5%
Hover over or tap a state for its figures. Most utilities count data centres as commercial customers and some as industrial, so commercial sales follow data-centre load only roughly. The corner mark shows the 13 states and DC that PJM's grid serves in whole or in part.
US electricity demand
Annual consumption, with data-centre use highlighted · 2025–2035
Other electricity useData centresProjected from 2026
TWh a year
Left/right: year · Escape: close readout.
Annual totals: EIA. Data-centre estimates apply BNEF’s 2030/35 shares, interpolating intervening shares. Projections start in 2026.
US electricity generation mix
Annual generation shares · EIA baseline scenario · 2025–2035
CoalNatural gasNuclearHydroWindSolarOther, net
Share of US electricity generation, %
Left/right: year · Escape: close readout.
EIA baseline scenario; 2025 uses its older baseline estimate. Shares use annual net generation. Other includes net storage effects.
What markets expect
International
How the largest economies grow, what Asia's AI exports show, and how inflation, trade with China and factory output change.
Korea chip export valueThe chart separates export value, prices and volumes. From July 2026 to September 2026, prices rose about 179% and volumes rose about 16% on a year earlier. Most of the change in export value came from prices.
Export value, 3-month average, change on a year earlier
223%
+23 pp vs prior
Sep 2026
Euro-area inflationEurostat’s Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for the euro area, including energy and food. The country and contribution charts below show its context.
Headline consumer prices, change on a year earlier
3.8%
+0.6 pp vs prior
Sep 2026
EU export volumes to ChinaUses the same seasonally and calendar-adjusted volume index as the trade chart. The latest three-month mean is compared with the 2019 annual average. This is not nominal export growth or a year-on-year change.
Real goods volumes, 3-month average vs the 2019 average
−31.6%
Aug 2026
EU vehicle productionEurostat manufacturing branch C29 covers motor vehicles, trailers and parts. This is the same real, seasonally and calendar-adjusted comparison as the sector chart, not a count of finished cars.
Real output of vehicles and parts, Jun–Aug 2026 vs 2019
−17.9%
Aug 2026
Real GDP growth by country
Quarterly observations since 2023 · change from the same quarter a year earlier
Higher than startLower than startTaiwan and KoreaClick a country to show only it
Real GDP growth, % year over year
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Inflation-adjusted GDP, change from the same quarter a year earlier. All lines use observed quarterly GDP. Latest available quarters vary by country; gaps remain where no observation is available.
Asia’s technology exports are growing fast
Korean chip exports, Taiwan’s electronics exports and US import shares · three-month measures
Korea: chip exports
PriceVolumeValueCustoms, first 20 days
Three-month average, change on a year earlier, %
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Taiwan: orders and chip exports
Electronics ordersChip exports
Three-month average, change on a year earlier, %
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Vietnam and Taiwan now supply almost as much of US imports as China
MexicoChinaVietnamTaiwanKorea
% of US goods imports
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Growth lines compare three-month averages with a year earlier; US import shares use three-month trade sums. The early Korean customs reading covers the first 20 days of each month.
Inflation across Europe and Asia
Headline consumer-price inflation, monthly, January 2021 to September 2026
Below 2%Above 2%(−6% … 2% … +10%)
One country per row, one month per tile. Europe uses HICP except UK CPI; Asia uses national CPI. The 2% colour reference is not a shared policy target. Grey means no published reading. Latest dates vary; hover the final value for its month.
What is driving inflation?
Euro area and Asia excluding China · September 2026 · annual contributions
Headline inflationClick a category to isolate it
Contribution to annual inflation, percentage points
Use Tab to move through the rows. Press Escape to close the readout.
Energy is removed from housing and transport. ≈ marks estimates; baskets differ. Vietnam uses dated fuel weights. Indonesia’s full split is unavailable. Other includes hospitality and rounding.
Producer-price inflation
Europe and Asia · monthly annual change, January 2021–September 2026
Click a country to show only it
Change from a year earlier, %
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National headline output prices; coverage differs. Taiwan includes exports; Korea includes services. India starts in 2024. Latest months vary.
China is moving into Europe’s export strengths
2019–2025 · 14 of 27 EU countries have more export overlap and weaker customer fit
Each dot compares an economy’s trade mix in 2025 with 2019. Right means more overlap with Chinese exports. Down means a weaker match to China’s imports. The values are changes in overlap scores, not sales growth.
Change in import match, pp · weaker match ↓
Change in export overlap, pp · more similarity →
Bottom-right: more overlap with China’s exports and a weaker match to its imports.
Germany
- Similarity to China’s exports
- +3.0 pp
- Match to China’s imports
- -4.25 pp
Its export mix has become more similar to China’s. Its exports match the mix of goods China imports less closely.
Largest sector contributions, pp
| Overlap | Import fit | |
|---|---|---|
| Machinery and transport | +3.41 | -1.26 |
| Other goods | -0.96 | -2.0 |
| Chemicals and pharmaceuticals | +0.45 | -1.31 |
| Materials and basic manufactures | +0.29 | +0.73 |
| Energy | -0.51 | -0.4 |
| Consumer manufactures | +0.11 | -0.29 |
Each dot compares an economy’s trade mix in 2025 with 2019. Right: exports more like China’s; down: a weaker match to what China imports. Scores run 0–100 over broad HS2 goods groups; country baskets include intra-EU trade. Not an estimate of lost output.
Europe buys more from China than in 2019 and sells less, in volume
EU goods trade with China · three-month averages · 2019 = 100
Imports from ChinaExports to China
Volume index, 2019 average = 100
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Seasonally and calendar-adjusted volume indices. Imports and exports have separate baskets; the distance between the curves is not a monetary trade balance. Mainland China, excluding Hong Kong.
Manufacturing output compared with 2019
Real manufacturing production · June 2026 to August 2026 against the 2019 average
EUGermanyFranceItalySpain
Output change from the 2019 average, %
Use Tab to move through the rows. Press Escape to close the readout.
Seasonally and calendar adjusted. Bars show the EU, dots its four largest economies: the latest three-month average against 2019, on one scale. Sector indices are not additive.
What markets expect
Figures are shown as published by the named source and are revised by their publishers. This page is for information only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. This dashboard is maintained and updated with the help of AI. Errors can occur; we apologise for any.
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